Real-World Education for Modern Marketers

Categories of Forecasting Models

Below is a brief overview of the four categories of models and examples of the techniques described in this guide.

JUDGMENTAL MODELS

• These models rely on intuitive judgments, opinions, and probabilities.

• Jury of Executive Opinion

• Delphi Method

TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING MODELS

• These methods also rely on judgment and are particularly appropriate for very new technologies and very long-range forecasting.

• Curve Fitting

• Extrapolation of Trends

• S-shaped Curves

• Envelope S-Curves

• Analogous Data

TIME SERIES MODELS

• These models are based only on past data. The focus is on using patterns, changes, disturbances, etc. in the data to forecast the future.

• Moving Averages

• Exponential Smoothing

• Decomposition Models

• Box-Jenkins

CAUSAL MODELS

• Models based on the relationship between predictable factors and outcomes.

• Regression Analysis

• Leading Indicator Analysis

• Input-Output Models