This is from John Strattion, EVP and CMO of Verizon Communications, in his keynote speech at the Media Convergence Forum.


Audience fragmentation has made media planning a much more complex process .... $70B TV, $33B magazines, $28B newspapers, $11B radio, $18B internet, $4B outdoor (US Ad spending 2007)
Since 1985 the number of channels has grown 6X .... causing viewership hours per channel decrease by 50% (12B additional videos consumed per month not viewed on TV)
In the same 20 years –
The audience that broadcast TV draws has decreased by 60% - but the cost to reach an audience on TV has significantly increase over the past 20 years
Bill Gates said "TV is dead" because the lack of control for consumers in TV, internet allows consumer to consume what they want and when they want it not on the publishers schedule.
IP Technology is poised to converge the TV and Web experience.
Some cornerstone elements of this convergence are:
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VOD allows users to take control of their own experience because with DVR you must know what you want to watch before it airs!
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Targeted ad insertion radically changes the medium .... no longer by "slots" you buy an "audience" based on geographic, demographic, and viewing behavior segmentation.
Target set up boxes with behavioral and consumption patterns .... deliver ads that relate to the purchase patterns .... pay for performance, geotargeting and other online measurements all start applying once this is possible. Then once an ad is delivered .... users are allowed to search and discover full-line catalogs and T-commerce right from the set top box.
Bottom line .... TV becomes much more like the internet (IPTV) but with broadcast programming and ads will be bought and delivered like internet advertising!
And just another thought - Can you envision a crossover of web programs to TV? Like an eBay/Home Shopping Network channel or Americas Funniest Home Videos/YouTube edition??