Most technology experts and highly engaged Internet users (71%) say cloud computing will become more dominant than the desktop in the next decade—creating an environment in which people work via mobile and Web-based applications (such as Facebook and Google Docs) more than desktop software—according to a study by Elon University and the Pew Research Center.
- 71% of those surveyed agree with the statement: By 2020, most people won't do their work with software running on a general purpose PC. Instead, they will work in Internet-based applications such as Google Docs, and in applications run from smartphones. Aspiring application developers will develop for smartphone vendors and companies that provide Internet-based applications, because most innovative work will be done in that domain, instead of designing applications that run on a PC operating system.
- 27% agree with the opposite statement: By 2020, most people will still do their work with software running on a general-purpose PC. Internet-based applications such as Google Docs and applications that are run from smartphones will have some functionality, but the most innovative and important applications will run on (and spring from) a PC operating system. Aspiring application designers will write mostly for PCs.
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Cloud architecture allows people to conveniently take advantage of larger amounts of storage and computing power regardless of location, operating system, or device (including smartphones).
That key advantage is a huge factor in the dominance Web-based applications over desktop applications—and will continue to propel the migration to the cloud, agree most of the surveyed experts.
However, some experts in the panel disagree—mainly on grounds of security and privacy of information stored on the "cloud."
(Read a sample of respondents' thoughts.)
About the data: Results are based on a nonrandom online sample of 895 Internet experts and other highly engaged Internet users, fielded from Dec. 2, 2009 to Jan. 11, 2010, by the Pew Internet & American Life Project and Elon University.
