Marking the beginning of a moderate recovery, worldwide advertising expenditure is forecast to grow 2.9% this year, an upward revision of nearly 2 percentage points from the 1% forecast issued in October 2009, according to Carat.
The projected growth, however, is in the wake of steep spending declines in 2009. Even allowing for the projected growth, the global ad market in 2010 is expected to remain below its absolute 2006 level.
The forecast revisions were driven by an improved outlook notably in the US, China, and the UK, according to Carat, part of Aegis Media.
"This early view of future global ad spend shows the potential for modest recovery through this year and into 2011 in what looks like being an increasingly benign environment," said Jerry Buhlmann, CEO of Aegis Media.
In addition, various events this year are expected to help boost spending, particularly soccer's FIFA World Cup, the World Expo, and the Asian and Commonwealth Games.
All major markets are expected to stabilize in 2010; however, some markets are expected to rebound strongly: Double-digit growth is expected in China (16.1%), Indonesia (15.8%), Brazil (11.6%), and Turkey (13.5%).
Meanwhile, ad expenditure is forecast to fall in Japan (3.1%), Germany (2.6%), and Spain (2.0%).
Below, other projections from Carat.
US Ad Market
Overall, the US ad expenditure is now forecast to grow 0.2% in 2010, up nearly 2.8 points from the -2.6% forecast in October. A higher recovery—1.4% annual growth—is forecast for 2011.
Across ad sectors, increases are expected in TV, online, and radio advertising in 2010:
- TV advertising is forecast to increase 4%, a revised projection driven by upticks in the category registered in the fourth quarter of 2009.
- The radio industry has already registered increases in spending in the first quarter of 2010, and total radio ad revenues for the full year are now expected to grow 2.5%.
- Spending continues to migrate from offline to online media: online spending is forecast to increase 10%.
- Newspaper and magazine spending are forecast to fall 8.3% and 5.0%, respectively.
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International Media Forecasts by Sector
All media are expected to return to growth in 2010 except for newspapers and magazines. Magazine advertising—the worst-hit category in 2009, recording 20.2% losses during the year—is expected to return to positive growth in 2011.
Online ad expenditure is forecast to grow 10.1% in 2010, followed by TV (6.0%) and Cinema (3.6%)—trends that are expected to continue into 2011.
Television is expected to continue to account for the highest share of spend in 2010: 45.2%, up 8 percentage points over the past decade.
Despite continued declines in circulation levels, newspapers are expected to retain the second-highest share of ad spend. That share, however, has fallen more than 10 points in the past decade, from 31% in 2000 to the 20.3% forecast for this year.
Online advertising is forecast to reach 11% of ad spending this year, overtaking magazines to become the third-most popular medium behind TV and newspapers.
