This year mobile use in the US finally surpassed desktop use, with 60% of total digital media time spent on smartphones and tablets, up 10% from the previous year. The US has finally caught up with global trends, and the mobile screen has become the primary screen.

That fact will define not just the mobile landscape but also all digital media strategy in 2015.

With that in mind, my team and I conducted research and interviews with industry leaders, along with vigorous debate and internal discussion, to arrive at the following predictions and some major themes we expect to see in 2015.

1. Apple Watch will sell more than 15 million units

In 2014, wearables became a consumer reality with the much-anticipated Apple Watch announcement. This still-unreleased product managed to overshadow smartwatch releases from all other major consumer electronics manufacturers. Combined with the massive success of this year's iPhone 6, Apple's Midas touch is not wearing out any time soon.

In 2015, the wearable trend has the potential to redefine and reignite the entire mobile ecosystem.

The Pebble watch, while a groundbreaking device, has only sold about 500,000 units to date. The Samsung's Galaxy Watch fared better, selling almost 800,000 units. These modest sales figures imply that wearables are just a niche product for nerds in Silicon Valley.

We believe the debut of the Apple Watch, however, will demonstrate the commercial viability of wearables. Though some estimates for Apple Watch sales are as high as 30 million units next year, we think it will sell at least 15 million in 2015.

2. Even more consolidation of advertising technology companies will occur

In 2014, the mobile advertising market ballooned: Facebook reported that 62% of its revenue from mobile ads in Q2 and global mobile ad spending increased 75% to nearly $32 billion—that's one-quarter of the digital ad spend for the entire world.

Moreover, there was massive investment in mobile real-time bidding (RTB), with spend up 69% from Q1 to Q2. Ad networks moved to adopt RTB or buy pureplay mobile ad exchanges: Yahoo acquired Flurry, Millennial Media acquired both Nexage and Jumptap, and Twitter acquired NamoMedia and TapCommerce; a host of other, smaller acquisitions and mergers are too numerous to mention.

RTB and programmatic buying are clearly top of mind for everyone in digital advertising. Expect acquisitions to accelerate; it's the only viable way for most major players to enter the RTB market.

3. Location-based ad buying will become possible at scale

Location-based advertising in mobile has been the Holy Grail for years, its growth hindered by a lack of access to accurate location data and the inventory to go with it. Growth in smartwatches—especially the Apple Watch—combined with wide distribution for Apple Pay, will bring critical scale for location-based advertising, which will take off.

Marketers are already employing "location and object-based triggers based on technologies such as GPS, NFC and the Internet of Things" to increase ad relevancy in real-time, according to a study by Rebecca Lieb of Altimeter group. And spending on location-targeted ads will grow from $4.9 billion in 2014 to more than $15 billion in 2018, local media research firm BIA/Kelsey projects.

If consumer adoption of wearables is as strong as we predict, location-based mobile advertising could account for 25% of all mobile ad buys in 2015.

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Six Mobile Marketing Predictions for 2015

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR

image of Ash Kumar

Ash Kumar is a co-founder and the CEO of TapSense, a leading independent mobile advertising exchange. An engineer turned entrepreneur, Ash held multiple leadership positions at Oracle prior to founding TapSense.

LinkedIn: Ash Kumar