There was no Viagra in 1918, but there were plenty of goats.
At the time, the alleged sexual prowess of goats enjoyed legendary status. So it was that Kansas physician John R. Brinkley made a small fortune surgically implanting goat testicles in men seeking to enhance or restore their own virility.
Never mind that the procedure failed to deliver the promised benefit; that Brinkley was a medical school dropout who bought a diploma for $100; or that most of his patients died during or shortly after surgery. A steady supply of men handed over their cash to Brinkley's scruples, and their privates to his scalpel.
I hope you agree with me that the decision to undergo Brinkley's procedure was irrational. The risks of infection, mutilation, sterility, and death were clear... yet otherwise presumably intelligent men convinced themselves to go ahead with implantation anyway.
Why?
Of course, you already know the answer. People who really, really want to believe, will believe—regardless of where the evidence points. Brinkley's patients really, really wanted the promised benefit, so they embraced his trumped-up "success stories," and disqualified the negative outcomes.
We haven't changed much in 90 years. Consider the people you know who set aside evidence and common sense in favor of staying in bad relationships, racking up charges on psychic hotlines, lending money to losers, or wearing magnets to ward off arthritis—all motivated by an acute desire to believe.
Or, consider marketers who believe that their programs are working, even when the evidence says otherwise or, more often, when there is no evidence at all.
Do You Make These Six Irrational Leaps in Marketing?
All people, even marketers, are subject to irrationality. It's not a question of how smart you are, but of having evolved in an environment where impulsive actions kept us alive. Hunter-gatherers who paused to ponder whether a nearby roar signaled a hungry lioness or a mischievous parrot didn't last as long as those who simply ran.
Indeed, magnetic resonance brain imaging indicates that we are wired to believe the first possibility that enters our head. Taking a rational, second look isn't instinctive. It's something we must train ourselves to do.
Much of today's marketing works, but a good deal more has little or no effect, and some actually drives sales down. That much shouldn't surprise anyone who understands bell-curve distribution. What is surprising is how few marketers have a clue as to where in the curve their marketing falls. This is not to imply that most marketers willfully deceive. Many have simply and unwittingly embraced time-honored marketing myths—usually based on leaps that someone made long ago without checking for parrots.
Here are six out of many possible examples.
Irrational Leap #1: "Everyone knows..."
Bad ideas are often embraced—and good ones dismissed—thanks to what "everyone" knows. "Everyone knows" that no one reads long ads, watches late-night TV, or buys when they sense that you're "trying to sell them something." So marketers keep copy under 100 words, spend a fortune on Prime Time, and sacrifice selling to subtlety.
Trouble is, these are cases in which "everyone" is mistaken: Long ads outsell short ones, advertising on late-night TV generates more orders than on Prime Time, and blatantly promotional advertising outsells holding back.
Given how often "everyone" is right, deference is understandable. Everyone knows—and rightly so—not to play catch with a hornet's nest, stick a finger in a fan, or pick on someone bigger than one's own size. But, on the other hand, not too long ago "everyone" knew that our planet was stationary, time was constant, stress caused ulcers, and Iraq was stockpiling WMDs.
Marketing is rife with what "everyone knows" that turns out not to be so. Some of marketing's most prevalent and damaging myths are "my gut is always right," "focus groups are predictive," "awareness means success," "sales are up because of the ads," and "award-winning advertising is effective." These are the subjects of irrational leaps 2 through 6.
Irrational Leap #2: "My tummy tells me..."
Raise your hand—or just roll your eyes—if your boss ever embraced a bad idea or rejected a good one with, "I'm going with my gut on this one—and my gut is never wrong."
It's doubtful that anyone's gut intuition is right even most of the time. More often, hindsight and selection biases cause people to overlook times when the lower half's prognostications don't pan out. Or, they never know about those times, because employees fearful of Shot Messenger Syndrome avoid bearing bad news.
Remember that every restaurant that went under, movie that failed, new product that languished on the clearance rack, and business venture that capsized had the full vision and support of someone's gut that was allegedly never wrong.
Irrational Leap #3: "Research shows..."
If you show storyboards to groups of 10 to 20 people who say, "Yup, that commercial would make me buy," you have a winner, right? If you phone 5,000 people and 80% say they'll switch to your brand if you change the tagline, they will, right?
Nope. Focus group participants told Telebrands CEO A. J. Kubani that they would cheerfully pay $19.95 for his RoboMaid product. But when he opened up a trunk of ready-to-purchase RoboMaids, no one bought.
And you may remember from history that in the 1948 US presidential race, both the Roper and Gallop organizations predicted a win for Dewey. This was based on asking statistically valid samples of Americans how they were going to vote. In case you missed it, Truman won.
Such cases are not unusual. If you ask people what they do, why they do it, or what they think they would do in a hypothetical situation, you'll learn much about their self-concept and nothing about their behavior.
Don't believe me? Ask people—even in an anonymous survey—how often they wash after using the restroom. Then hide in a stall and count how many actually wash. The difference between what people believe about themselves and what you observe them do (or, not do) will surprise you. It may also discourage you from ever accepting another handshake.
Irrational Leap #4: "Awareness is up..."
Advertising was invented to deliver a pitch in place of a live salesperson. Its measure of success was the number of people who purchased. Later, advertisers began judging their work by the number of people who noticed or remembered a campaign. Today, many advertisers believe that an ad has "done its job" if it draws notice.
To put this silly notion to the test, think about the Ford Edsel, New Coke, Wendy's pigtail-wig campaign, and the Subaru "liar" campaign. These failed ventures still enjoy top-of-mind-awareness.
Irrational Leap #5: "Sales are up..."
It sounds convincing to say, "Sales went up when we ran the ads, so the campaign worked." Unfortunately, that line of reasoning is based on a logical fallacy well-enough known to have its own Latin name: Post hoc, ergo propter hoc. "After this, therefore because of this."
It's an easy leap to make, since what happens first often does cause what happens next. If you experience indigestion after overeating, you can safely blame the overeating. But coincidence can fool us.
In the early 1980's, sagging Harley sales picked up at about the same time that the company cranked up the creativity of its advertising. So the new ad campaign obviously caused the sales increase... Or did it? Also at the same time, President Reagan increased the tariff on imported motorcycles from 4.4% to 49.4%. Maybe that had something to do with the company's sales turnaround.
If sales surged in the wake of your marketing campaign, congratulations. But you'll need more than that to establish that the campaign caused it.
Irrational Leap #6: "But it won lots of awards..."
A quick look at advertising award competitions reveals categories like "Best Photography," "Best Use of Humor," "Best Design," "Best Editing," "Best Original Score," "Best Copy," and "Best Directing." Everything, it seems, except "sold the most widgets."
Funny thing. Awards given to salespeople are tied to numbers. I bet you've never seen a salesperson receive an award for funniest pitch, best jingle, or most original attire.
If you want to prove that award-winning marketing is de facto successful, you'll need to exclude these from your data: the many straightforward ads, like those for common household products, that produce sales; the many corny ones, like those for Ronco, that make fortunes; and the many highly praised creative ones, like the Taco Bell Chihuahua, that fail to increase sales.
Or, you could spare yourself the trouble. Admit that the number of awards your work garners is great for your ego—but has nothing to do with selling.
Toward Rational Marketing
Good news, marketers. You needn't be subject to the above-referenced or other irrational leaps. Here are four tips for making rational marketing decisions.
1. Conduct a valid predictive test
The trick is to quit asking people to tell you their behavior, and discretely watch it instead.
How do you suppose the retail industry learned that people in the US tend to move to their right upon entering a store? Hint: not by asking them in focus groups or phone surveys. Researchers hid in stores and watched.
There are many ways to put customers in a position to show you how they'll behave; all it takes is a little imagination. Here's one example. Say you want to choose between Headline A and Headline B. Create two mailers that are identical but for the headline. Include a free incentive offer. Send A to half of a sample list of your market, and B to the other half. Now, count the replies. You can be pretty sure that the headline pulling more replies is stronger.
To be more than just pretty sure, retest. If you get the same results, the evidence is that you're on solid ground.
2. Take the emotion out of your decisions
The passion to be right is intoxicating. Sober up. Your objective is to sell widgets, not to bolster your ego. As you design a valid test, resolve in advance to accept the results, even if they fail to support your hunches.
3. Maintain control groups as a matter of policy
A sales increase during a campaign might or might not be a coincidence. You can find out by establishing a control group—a representative selection of customers who aren't exposed to your campaign. A quick comparison of control-group versus other-customer purchases will tell you what effect, if any, your campaign had.
4. Resist the urge to jump to conclusions
Logic leaps are beguiling. Force yourself to collect valid evidence. Remain skeptical about what the evidence says—as opposed to what you want it to say.
Warding Off Bean Counters
The more you train yourself to eschew unwarranted leaps and instead approach marketing from a sober, rational standpoint, the more you will find yourself creating and refining campaigns that are demonstrably and measurably successful.
Then, next time a bean counter turns a greedy eye on your budget, you won't have to defend your work with dodges like, "but it's so creative," "it did well in focus groups," or "I feel in my gut that it works." The numbers will speak for themselves.
It's too late to save Dr. Brinkley's patients. I'm afraid it's also too late for the goats. It's not too late for marketers.
